Md. Ridwan Al Hasan
When you manage the daily accounts and meal
budgets for a residential facility, you see the brutal reality of inflation
long before it hits the national news. The escalating conflict between the
United States, Iran, Israel, and allied forces in the Middle East is not just a
distant geopolitical chess game. For Bangladesh, it is a direct and immediate
threat to our daily survival.
The shockwaves are already here. The global
crude oil market has been volatile since February. Just last week, our
government sought relief from subsidies by adjusting fuel prices upward by
16.6%. Consequently, our transportation, agricultural fertilizers and production
costs are shooting up in parallel.
For the common citizen, this translates into a
crushing daily reality. The salaried class is trapped. Their monthly income
remains exactly the same. But, about 9% inflation rate is rapidly devouring
their purchasing power. When production costs rise, both market demand and
industrial supply are severely affected, creating a vicious cycle of economic
stagnation.
We must look at our macroeconomic health with
absolute seriousness, as we are already running far behind our potential.
According to Asian Development Bank, our projected GDP growth is estimated at a
maximum of only 4.0 percent for this year, 2026. Furthermore, our banking
sector is bleeding. Defaulted loans have crossed unprecedented levels, and our
foreign debt obligations remain a grave concern.
To confront the impending effects of this
prolonged global conflict, we cannot rely on passive observation. We need
immediate, structural, and unorthodox economic offensives.
Immediate Expansion of Business and Employment
in Our Own Capacity
We cannot afford to wait for foreign direct
investment. It naturally shrinks during a global war. The state must initiate
the immediate expansion of domestic businesses and local employment. Closed
factories and garment plants should be reopened. Political nepotism must be
stopped. Genuine entrepreneurs, irrespective of their political affiliations, should
receive proper loan support.
The government should provide emergency
stimulus packages specifically targeted at small and medium enterprises (SMEs),
agriculture, and local manufacturing. These sectors are the true engines of job
creation. Furthermore, our youth must shift away from the mindset of striving only
to become "elite" officers. Rather, they should develop their own
plans, strategies, and skills to launch a startup, business, or project.
Securing Remittance Channels
The Middle East is home to millions of our
migrant workers. If the US-Iran conflict deepens or any new war starts, our
remittance inflows will take a massive hit. To protect our foreign exchange
reserves, the state must focus on ensuring remittances flow entirely through
formal banking channels. The government must eliminate bureaucratic hurdles and
offer substantial exchange rate incentives to outcompete illegal hundi
networks. Every single dollar must be captured by the formal economy to
stabilize the Taka. We should also initiate diplomatic negotiations with
labor-receiving countries to exchange our workforce for energy imports, rather
than relying solely on cash transactions.
Diplomatic Shifts for Alternative Energy
The government initiated diplomatic maneuvers
to source fuel from alternative regions, including refined imports from
Southeast Asia and pipeline supplies from India to mitigate the Persian Gulf crisis.
It is a good move. But, we need to ensure long-term energy contracts with these
nations. Diversifying our energy sources is the only way to shield our local
industries from sudden price shocks and supply chain disruptions.
Energy Sovereignty
Instead of pleading for foreign capital or
investment, we must push our own engineers, geologists, and technical experts
to excavate our domestic resources. We must aggressively explore our offshore
gas blocks in the Bay of Bengal and optimize the extraction of oil, gas, and
natural resources immediately. Though this may create disputes and carries
risks of failure, what alternative do we have? Will we sit idle, leasing
everything to foreign entities without ever taking risks ourselves? We possess
the scientific and technical human capital. The state simply needs to empower
them, or, at the very least, inaugurate proper feasibility studies and trial
projects.
Dismantling Syndicates and Ensuring Proper
Distribution
A global crisis always exposes the internal
moral failures of a system. In Bangladesh, improper governance and market
manipulation are our greatest internal threats. Powerful syndicates allegedly control
the supply chain, using the excuse of international conflict to artificially
hike prices. This leads to extreme economic discrimination, where the wealthy
survive while the working class starves. The state must enforce strict market
monitoring and deliver swift penalties to those who hoard essential commodities.
Information, Media, and Moral Development
The psychological and critical media dynamics
of this crisis is a great concern. In times of war, rumors spread faster than
inflation. Fake news creates market panic, leading to artificial scarcity. To
combat this, ethical development is necessary, and the spread of rumors must be
stopped immediately. We can form a specialized Information Cell that includes
practicing media experts, communication scholars, and economists. Through
proper digital verification tools and transparent reporting, citizens can learn
the actual facts about our national reserves and import costs. Complete data
transparency will instantly dismantle the narratives spun by the opportunists.
Demographic Dividend Frustration
We have to also pay close attention to the
mental health of our society. The psychological pressure and deep frustration
among aspiring university students and the unemployed are grave concerns. They
are staring at a very dismal economic future. If the state ignores this massive
demographic and leaves them without hope or clear communication, individual
depression, suicidal tendency and social crimes can drastically increase.
The Middle East conflict is a mirror reflecting
our own internal vulnerabilities. We cannot stop the missiles from flying
abroad, but we can build a resilient economic fortress at home. It is time for
serious, structural action.
Md. Ridwan Al Hasan,
Student, Mass Communication and Journalism,
University of Dhaka
Acting Editor, Sahityonama
E-mail: mohammadridwanalhasan@gmail.com
References
Asian
Development Bank. (2026). Asian development outlook 2026: Navigating global
geopolitical risks. Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/publications/series/asian-development-outlook
Bangladesh
Bank. (2026). Annual report on foreign exchange reserves and remittance
trends. Central Bank of Bangladesh. https://www.bb.org.bd/en/index.php/publication/
International
Energy Agency. (2025). World energy outlook 2025: Supply chain
vulnerabilities in South Asia. OECD/IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025
World Bank.
(2026). Global economic prospects: The impact of Middle East conflicts on
emerging markets. World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
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